Retired Major Emmy Johnson Opio, a prominent political analyst and veteran, has sparked a heated debate with his recent comments on the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and its prospects in the upcoming 2026 presidential elections. Speaking candidly, Opio declared that the UPC, as a political party, effectively "died" after the 1980 elections and has since failed to regain its former influence in Ugandan politics.
Opio acknowledged the party’s recent by-election victories in Oyam North and Dokolo District but dismissed them as isolated incidents driven by the will of the people rather than a resurgence of UPC’s national appeal. He emphasized that these wins do not reflect the party’s ability to compete on a larger scale, particularly in the presidential race.
Addressing the possibility of UPC President Jimmy Akena contesting in the 2026 presidential election, Opio expressed skepticism about his chances of success. He predicted that Akena would secure less than 2% of the national vote, with the majority of his support likely coming from the Lango sub-region, where the party still holds some historical significance.
Opio went further to advise the people of Lango, urging them to reconsider casting their votes for UPC in the presidential election. He described such votes as "invalid" in the broader context of the national political landscape, arguing that they would have no meaningful impact on the outcome of the election or the formation of the next government.
"Anybody who wants to cast their vote in the name of UPC should count it as an invalid vote," Opio stated. "It will not change the government or influence the major election countrywide. Instead, the people of Lango should consider pooling their votes with a candidate or party that has a realistic chance of winning. This would be a better use of their votes and a more strategic decision for their future."
Opio, who claims to have an in-depth understanding of Uganda’s political dynamics, expressed confidence that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) would still win the 2026 elections by a significant margin. He attributed this to the NRM’s entrenched position, widespread support, and effective mobilization strategies.
His remarks have ignited mixed reactions, with some praising his pragmatic approach and others accusing him of undermining the democratic right of voters to support the candidate or party of their choice. Supporters of UPC, in particular, have dismissed Opio’s comments as biased and out of touch with the party’s ongoing efforts to rebuild its base.
As the 2026 elections draw closer, Opio’s advice to the people of Lango highlights the strategic calculations that often come into play in Uganda’s competitive political environment. Whether voters will heed his advice or continue to support UPC remains to be seen, but his comments have undoubtedly added fuel to the ongoing debate about the party’s future and the broader political landscape in Uganda.
